Nearly Over?
Well, it's a hope.
At last look (I've had it linked over on the right for the past few months) I see that Obama is 38 delegates short of the most recent "magic" nomination number of 2,118, while Clinton is 205 short of that milestone. It at least appears to finally be drawing to a close (I'll reprint the piece at the bottom of this entry), and at the moment the Associated Press is running one of those annoying Breaking News, disembodied headlines that so remind me of messageboard tactics of rushing to be the first one to post something. It's been up for at least 10 minutes now, though, with no citation, so who knows?
The idea that she might only go so far as to state that he's reached the current magic number of delegates based on decisions made this past weekend concerning delegates from Florida and Michigan, and then in any way leave her campaign open... it'll be disastrous for the party.
Hopefully the Montana and South Dakota races will work well enough in Obama's favor to make a more convincing finish, but I haven't bothered to dig into the polling there, and who knows how things will swing as a result of what's being reported? Will news of a presumptive Obama nomination keep one or both camps home, be it out of a sense of defeat or complacency? Will there be an affirming rally, or one intended to send the message that they're making up their own minds?
Both are primarily Republican states, with more Republican delegates to offer than Democratic ones. Since Montana's Republicans had their race back on February 5th, there shouldn't be any party-flipping for the purposes of sabotage. In South Dakota, however, both Primaries are being held today, and with the registration (which would include the opportunity to switch parties there) deadline being a mere 15 days before the election -- back on May 19 -- there was an opportunity for such strategic, party-switching. A quick search mainly finds old (April) mentions of not having seen any widespread party-switching as of then, which tells me little to nothing.
[Update, of sorts] : As the delegates continue to pile up for Obama, the hemming and hawing continues, along with H.Clinton campaign style mealy-mouthedness:
Clinton to say Obama has enough delegates
Aides: Ex-first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race
Chris Carlson / AP
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets supporters during the long campaign season, which could end Tuesday night.
NBC News
BREAKING NEWS
MSNBC staff and news service reports
updated 8 minutes ago
CHICAGO - Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation's first female president.
The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City. She will pledge to continue to speak out on issues like health care. But for all intents and purposes, the two senior officials said, the campaign is over.
Most campaign staff will be let go and will be paid through June 15, said the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to divulge her plans.
History within his reach, Obama was primed to claim the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday or soon after as voters in Montana and South Dakota bring his months-long contest with dogged rival to a close.
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said Tuesday that once Obama gets the majority of convention delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."
The outcome could come by the end of the day with some choreography by the party's superdelegates. The party insiders were lining up behind Obama at a rate that could seal the nomination once results are in from Montana and South Dakota — or even before.
Two more superdelegates endorsed him Tuesday morning, from Michigan and Missouri, leaving him just 40 delegates short of the 2,118 needed to put him over the top and make him the nation's first black presidential nominee from a major party.
Credentials committee challenge unlikely
Clinton, once seen as a sure bet in her historic quest to become the first female president, was still pressing the superdelegates to support her fading candidacy. But McAuliffe indicated she was not inclined to drag out a dispute over delegates from the unsanctioned Michigan primary despite feeling shortchanged by a weekend compromise by the party's rules committee that she could still appeal to a higher level.
"I don't think she's going to go to the credentials committee," he said on NBC's "Today" show. Taking the matter to that committee would essentially extend the dispute into the convention and deny Democrats the unity they sorely want to achieve against Republican John McCain.
Seeing the cards fall into place for his November rival, McCain planned a prime time speech Tuesday night in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, La., in what is essentially a kickoff of the fall campaign.
Obama told The Associated Press on Monday that "we've got a lot of work to do in terms of bringing the party together" with the convention approaching.
On Tuesday, House Majority Whip and un-pledged delegate James Clyburn told the TODAY show that he was throwing his support behind Obama.
"I believe the nomination of Senator Obama is our party's best chance for victory in November, and our nation's best hope for much needed change," the South Carolina Representative said in a statement.
Similar endorsements from other superdelegates could decide the nomination in a matter of days.
"Once the last votes are cast, then it's in everybody's interest to resolve this quickly so we can pivot," he said.
Obama said there were a lot of superdelegates who have been private supporters of his but wanted to respect the process by not endorsing until the final primaries were done.
"We're still working the phones and we're still talking to people ... so we'll certainly have to wait until a little later tonight to see what the final tally is, but we certainly feel good waking up this morning," Robert Gibbs, Obama's spokesman, told CNN on Tuesday.
In a defiant shot across the GOP bow, Obama, who returned to hometown Chicago late Monday, planned to hold his wrap-up rally in St. Paul, Minn., at the arena that will be the site of the Republican National Convention in September.
Clinton rally in NYC
Clinton returned to New York, the state she represents in the Senate, planning an end-of-primary evening rally in Manhattan after a grueling campaign finale as she pushed through South Dakota on Monday.
"I'm just very grateful we kept this campaign going until South Dakota would have the last word," she said at a restaurant in Rapid City in one of her final campaign stops. Polls suggested Obama would win both South Dakota and Montana.
She still sounded buoyant. Her biggest booster and most tireless campaigner, husband Bill Clinton, didn't. "This may be the last day I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind," the former president said somberly as he stumped for her in South Dakota.
Ahead of Tuesday's concluding primaries, Obama sought to set the stage for reconciliation, praising Clinton's endurance and determination and offering to meet with her — on her terms — "once the dust settles" from their race.
"The sooner we can bring the party together, the sooner we can start focusing on McCain in November," Obama told reporters in Michigan. He said he spoke with Clinton on Sunday when he called to congratulate her on winning the Puerto Rico primary, most likely her last hurrah.
Looking for a running mate?
That fueled speculation for a "dream ticket" in which Clinton would become Obama's running mate — but neither camp was suggesting that was much of a possibility.
In the AP interview, Obama was asked when he would start looking for a running mate.
"The day after I have gotten that last delegate needed to officially claim the nomination, I'll start thinking about vice presidential nominees," he said. "It's a very important decision, and it's one where I'm going to have to take some time."
Clinton finished a whirlwind four days of campaigning that took her from New York to Puerto Rico to South Dakota and back. For a campaign pushing against long odds, it was a show of determination.
The former first lady, suffering from a recurrent cough, had to cede the microphone to her daughter Chelsea twice Monday as she struggled to recover her voice. Chelsea promptly took the opportunity — to discuss health care.
Well, it's a hope.
At last look (I've had it linked over on the right for the past few months) I see that Obama is 38 delegates short of the most recent "magic" nomination number of 2,118, while Clinton is 205 short of that milestone. It at least appears to finally be drawing to a close (I'll reprint the piece at the bottom of this entry), and at the moment the Associated Press is running one of those annoying Breaking News, disembodied headlines that so remind me of messageboard tactics of rushing to be the first one to post something. It's been up for at least 10 minutes now, though, with no citation, so who knows?
The idea that she might only go so far as to state that he's reached the current magic number of delegates based on decisions made this past weekend concerning delegates from Florida and Michigan, and then in any way leave her campaign open... it'll be disastrous for the party.
Hopefully the Montana and South Dakota races will work well enough in Obama's favor to make a more convincing finish, but I haven't bothered to dig into the polling there, and who knows how things will swing as a result of what's being reported? Will news of a presumptive Obama nomination keep one or both camps home, be it out of a sense of defeat or complacency? Will there be an affirming rally, or one intended to send the message that they're making up their own minds?
Both are primarily Republican states, with more Republican delegates to offer than Democratic ones. Since Montana's Republicans had their race back on February 5th, there shouldn't be any party-flipping for the purposes of sabotage. In South Dakota, however, both Primaries are being held today, and with the registration (which would include the opportunity to switch parties there) deadline being a mere 15 days before the election -- back on May 19 -- there was an opportunity for such strategic, party-switching. A quick search mainly finds old (April) mentions of not having seen any widespread party-switching as of then, which tells me little to nothing.
[Update, of sorts] : As the delegates continue to pile up for Obama, the hemming and hawing continues, along with H.Clinton campaign style mealy-mouthedness:
The advisers said Clinton has made a strategic decision to not formally end her campaign, giving her leverage to negotiate with Obama on various matters including a possible vice presidential nomination for her....which reminds, after a fashion, me of how she kept her name on the ballots in Michigan and Florida, claiming it had nothing to do with the ballots being cast.
Clinton to say Obama has enough delegates
Aides: Ex-first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race
Chris Carlson / AP
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets supporters during the long campaign season, which could end Tuesday night.
NBC News
BREAKING NEWS
MSNBC staff and news service reports
updated 8 minutes ago
CHICAGO - Hillary Rodham Clinton will concede Tuesday night that Barack Obama has the delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, campaign officials said, effectively ending her bid to be the nation's first female president.
The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City. She will pledge to continue to speak out on issues like health care. But for all intents and purposes, the two senior officials said, the campaign is over.
Most campaign staff will be let go and will be paid through June 15, said the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to divulge her plans.
History within his reach, Obama was primed to claim the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday or soon after as voters in Montana and South Dakota bring his months-long contest with dogged rival to a close.
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said Tuesday that once Obama gets the majority of convention delegates, "I think Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."
The outcome could come by the end of the day with some choreography by the party's superdelegates. The party insiders were lining up behind Obama at a rate that could seal the nomination once results are in from Montana and South Dakota — or even before.
Two more superdelegates endorsed him Tuesday morning, from Michigan and Missouri, leaving him just 40 delegates short of the 2,118 needed to put him over the top and make him the nation's first black presidential nominee from a major party.
Credentials committee challenge unlikely
Clinton, once seen as a sure bet in her historic quest to become the first female president, was still pressing the superdelegates to support her fading candidacy. But McAuliffe indicated she was not inclined to drag out a dispute over delegates from the unsanctioned Michigan primary despite feeling shortchanged by a weekend compromise by the party's rules committee that she could still appeal to a higher level.
"I don't think she's going to go to the credentials committee," he said on NBC's "Today" show. Taking the matter to that committee would essentially extend the dispute into the convention and deny Democrats the unity they sorely want to achieve against Republican John McCain.
Seeing the cards fall into place for his November rival, McCain planned a prime time speech Tuesday night in the New Orleans suburb of Kenner, La., in what is essentially a kickoff of the fall campaign.
Obama told The Associated Press on Monday that "we've got a lot of work to do in terms of bringing the party together" with the convention approaching.
On Tuesday, House Majority Whip and un-pledged delegate James Clyburn told the TODAY show that he was throwing his support behind Obama.
"I believe the nomination of Senator Obama is our party's best chance for victory in November, and our nation's best hope for much needed change," the South Carolina Representative said in a statement.
Similar endorsements from other superdelegates could decide the nomination in a matter of days.
"Once the last votes are cast, then it's in everybody's interest to resolve this quickly so we can pivot," he said.
Obama said there were a lot of superdelegates who have been private supporters of his but wanted to respect the process by not endorsing until the final primaries were done.
"We're still working the phones and we're still talking to people ... so we'll certainly have to wait until a little later tonight to see what the final tally is, but we certainly feel good waking up this morning," Robert Gibbs, Obama's spokesman, told CNN on Tuesday.
In a defiant shot across the GOP bow, Obama, who returned to hometown Chicago late Monday, planned to hold his wrap-up rally in St. Paul, Minn., at the arena that will be the site of the Republican National Convention in September.
Clinton rally in NYC
Clinton returned to New York, the state she represents in the Senate, planning an end-of-primary evening rally in Manhattan after a grueling campaign finale as she pushed through South Dakota on Monday.
"I'm just very grateful we kept this campaign going until South Dakota would have the last word," she said at a restaurant in Rapid City in one of her final campaign stops. Polls suggested Obama would win both South Dakota and Montana.
She still sounded buoyant. Her biggest booster and most tireless campaigner, husband Bill Clinton, didn't. "This may be the last day I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind," the former president said somberly as he stumped for her in South Dakota.
Ahead of Tuesday's concluding primaries, Obama sought to set the stage for reconciliation, praising Clinton's endurance and determination and offering to meet with her — on her terms — "once the dust settles" from their race.
"The sooner we can bring the party together, the sooner we can start focusing on McCain in November," Obama told reporters in Michigan. He said he spoke with Clinton on Sunday when he called to congratulate her on winning the Puerto Rico primary, most likely her last hurrah.
Looking for a running mate?
That fueled speculation for a "dream ticket" in which Clinton would become Obama's running mate — but neither camp was suggesting that was much of a possibility.
In the AP interview, Obama was asked when he would start looking for a running mate.
"The day after I have gotten that last delegate needed to officially claim the nomination, I'll start thinking about vice presidential nominees," he said. "It's a very important decision, and it's one where I'm going to have to take some time."
Clinton finished a whirlwind four days of campaigning that took her from New York to Puerto Rico to South Dakota and back. For a campaign pushing against long odds, it was a show of determination.
The former first lady, suffering from a recurrent cough, had to cede the microphone to her daughter Chelsea twice Monday as she struggled to recover her voice. Chelsea promptly took the opportunity — to discuss health care.
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