So... We Actually Count This Year
After yesterday's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island the Democratic race is still up for grabs. On the 8th (this Saturday) the Democrats have a primary in Wyoming, then on the 11th both parties have on in Mississippi. After that it's on to here -- Pennsylvania. The GOP race is sewn up as McCain has his requisite delegates and Huckabee has dropped out of the race, so the GOP can now all fall in line and watch the Clinton and Obama campaigns for specific weaknesses in whichever one finally takes the nomination.
So, I'm expecting the primary focus to be shifting here to PA now, where at last look Clinton was still seen as strong though I know that the Obama campaign has been making headway. This race could go the distance and still easily find itself being decided by the superdelegates, since the eventual nominee still needs around 500 more delegates than each currently is being assigned. The current count seems to change from place to place because some spots are already counting superdelegates who've "pledged" their votes to a candidate, while others aren't since those votes can only be cast at the convention itself; until then even the pledged ones are just promises, and, well, this is politics. Besides, early-pledging superdelegates may find themselves re-thinking their vote after they see how their own constituencies vote.
Looking down the row, here are the Democratic primaries ahead of us and the number of delegates (not counting local superdelegates, just the voters) each will contribute:
March 8 Wyoming 12
March 11 Mississippi 33
April 22 Pennsylvania 158
May 6 Indiana 72
North Carolina 115
May 13 West Virginia 28
May 20 Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
June 3 Montana 16
South Dakota 15
So, barring some significant sweeps or a completely unexpected concession, this easily could go all the way to the party's convention, August 25-28 in Denver, Co.
What I'll be watching for will be signs of how the GOP machine attempts to influence the Democratic race. My expectation is that they (as I do) see Hillary Clinton as the easier opponent to defeat if for no other reason than GOP voters will come out to vote against her who otherwise might not feel compelled to bother voting. Some fifteen years of active demonization have some responding reflexively to her as the Antichrist. To a lesser degree, as one friend more or less put it, I think Republican strategists are more worried about being potentially characterized as racist than they are about a misogynist label.
After yesterday's primaries in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island the Democratic race is still up for grabs. On the 8th (this Saturday) the Democrats have a primary in Wyoming, then on the 11th both parties have on in Mississippi. After that it's on to here -- Pennsylvania. The GOP race is sewn up as McCain has his requisite delegates and Huckabee has dropped out of the race, so the GOP can now all fall in line and watch the Clinton and Obama campaigns for specific weaknesses in whichever one finally takes the nomination.
So, I'm expecting the primary focus to be shifting here to PA now, where at last look Clinton was still seen as strong though I know that the Obama campaign has been making headway. This race could go the distance and still easily find itself being decided by the superdelegates, since the eventual nominee still needs around 500 more delegates than each currently is being assigned. The current count seems to change from place to place because some spots are already counting superdelegates who've "pledged" their votes to a candidate, while others aren't since those votes can only be cast at the convention itself; until then even the pledged ones are just promises, and, well, this is politics. Besides, early-pledging superdelegates may find themselves re-thinking their vote after they see how their own constituencies vote.
Looking down the row, here are the Democratic primaries ahead of us and the number of delegates (not counting local superdelegates, just the voters) each will contribute:
March 8 Wyoming 12
March 11 Mississippi 33
April 22 Pennsylvania 158
May 6 Indiana 72
North Carolina 115
May 13 West Virginia 28
May 20 Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
June 3 Montana 16
South Dakota 15
So, barring some significant sweeps or a completely unexpected concession, this easily could go all the way to the party's convention, August 25-28 in Denver, Co.
What I'll be watching for will be signs of how the GOP machine attempts to influence the Democratic race. My expectation is that they (as I do) see Hillary Clinton as the easier opponent to defeat if for no other reason than GOP voters will come out to vote against her who otherwise might not feel compelled to bother voting. Some fifteen years of active demonization have some responding reflexively to her as the Antichrist. To a lesser degree, as one friend more or less put it, I think Republican strategists are more worried about being potentially characterized as racist than they are about a misogynist label.
.png)
Comments
As for your observation regarding the best opponent for the 'pubs, I think it's spot on. I think MANY republicans will vote for McCain to keep Clinton out. And I think it will put them in a much more difficult spot to have to campaign against an African American.
On this side of the coin, I find myself thinking far more about which candidate has the better chance of beating McCain, than which candidate would be better at the job.
And that's depressing.
But not as depressing as having another republican presidency.
Granted, I know that Obama's already moving with one foot down that dismal path, I think there's still time to influence him.