The Awful Pre-Math
Well, it's business, and it's not as awful as was feared... or perhaps I'm just fully onto the stages of acceptance and rationalization.
Wizkids released the rarity scheme for the new set structure this afternoon, filling in what's nearly the final pieces of the equation of collectability. The bottom line? Buy more extras.
The Wizkids business model has always demanded that in the pursuit of a complete set someone would have to buy extras of pieces they probably only wanted one of. That much was understood going in, and accepted as part of the deal. Either one does the buying himself, or he lets someone else do it and sell him the set or section of the set he wants. Either way, someone was buying multiples.
Under the old system - especially the way it was in place for the past year - one could buy a case of clix and come away with a full set of figures that could be pulled from a booster. (This ignores the ultra-rare chase figures they worked 4 of into each of the two most recent sets; a gimmick I'm hoping we won't see again.) A set was 96 pieces, a case held 192 pieces, so a case-buyer bought 2 clix for each 1 he wanted. Useful generics in the mix - figures without a character name that one might build a force out of - softened this considerably, as while one rapidly becomes sick of seeing rookie Jubilees (some of us the first time we see one), rookie Skrull Infiltrators were quite possibly a joy to see.
We already knew that as of Avengers - the end-of-June expansion - the set size and makeup was changing. Instead of 96 pieces, the new set size will be 60. While rookie, experienced, veteran and uniques will still exist, we will no longer have REV triplets of the first 28 characters and 12 uniques to create a list of roughly 40 characters. (Sometimes Seth did interesting things with the REVs, making them distinct characters.) Instead, we could potentially have 60 different characters in the set. So, more characters spread over fewer clix -- Thirty seven point five (37.5) percent fewer clix.
This left us wondering what the rarity level distribution would be in the set, so that we could figure out how many boosters one is expected to buy in order to either complete a set or have enough of the rarest level (super-rare) to be able to do 1:1 trades for the ones one's missing. As noted above, that used to mean 2 times the set size.
In the new scheme, well, here's how Wizkids laid it out:
Under this scheme, there will be 12 super-rare pieces, and as noted they will occur at a rate of 1 per 3 boosters. This means that in a case of 20 boosters one will find roughly 6.666666 super-rares, so over two cases it'll be roughly 13. Or, coming at it from the other end, if one buys 36 boosters (four boosters shy of two cases) one should have 12 super-rares, almost certainly some of them duplicates, but the idea is that one will be able to find someone with the super-rare you want who's looking for one of your extras. Sticking strictly to this 36 booster number and hoping for the best, that means one is expected to buy 180 clix in pursuit of a 60 clix set.
So, the 2:1 buy ratio will now be 3:1... which is at least better than the 4:1 or worse some had feared. Still, it does mean buying almost as many clix as before in pursuit of a significantly smaller set.
This is made a little worse by Wizkids' exclusive distribution deal which has all but destroyed the wholesale business in Heroclix by funneling all sales through Diamond/Alliance. Those of us looking to buy in bulk won't be able to find the discounts they were able to previously. Some myopic - or perhaps simply petulant - people whose circumstances didn't permit them to consider case-level buys have celebrated this as a victory over the Haves. All it actually means is that initially everyone's being screwed more equally. Hurrah.
Beyond that, what this will mean for the secondary market remains hazy. It seems likely that many of those who routinely bought deep in order to collect their own set and sell off the extras, including complete sets, to recoup their expenditures and even make some money will not be as active simply because their unit cost will have gone up; bulk will cost more than it previously did.
This could be good for the person-to-person trading since individual buyers will be pulling many extras; however, most of those extras will be in the common and uncommon range; while on the face of it that was true before, it could be a little worse given the new ratios, and when it comes to the highest rarity pieces they could really be left out in the cold with nothing comparable to trade for the pieces they want. Those who decide they want to directly buy the pieces they really want on the secondary market may find that market to be smaller and more expensive.
Me? I'm still going over the numbers and seeing what will fit me best.
Well, it's business, and it's not as awful as was feared... or perhaps I'm just fully onto the stages of acceptance and rationalization.
Wizkids released the rarity scheme for the new set structure this afternoon, filling in what's nearly the final pieces of the equation of collectability. The bottom line? Buy more extras.
The Wizkids business model has always demanded that in the pursuit of a complete set someone would have to buy extras of pieces they probably only wanted one of. That much was understood going in, and accepted as part of the deal. Either one does the buying himself, or he lets someone else do it and sell him the set or section of the set he wants. Either way, someone was buying multiples.
Under the old system - especially the way it was in place for the past year - one could buy a case of clix and come away with a full set of figures that could be pulled from a booster. (This ignores the ultra-rare chase figures they worked 4 of into each of the two most recent sets; a gimmick I'm hoping we won't see again.) A set was 96 pieces, a case held 192 pieces, so a case-buyer bought 2 clix for each 1 he wanted. Useful generics in the mix - figures without a character name that one might build a force out of - softened this considerably, as while one rapidly becomes sick of seeing rookie Jubilees (some of us the first time we see one), rookie Skrull Infiltrators were quite possibly a joy to see.
We already knew that as of Avengers - the end-of-June expansion - the set size and makeup was changing. Instead of 96 pieces, the new set size will be 60. While rookie, experienced, veteran and uniques will still exist, we will no longer have REV triplets of the first 28 characters and 12 uniques to create a list of roughly 40 characters. (Sometimes Seth did interesting things with the REVs, making them distinct characters.) Instead, we could potentially have 60 different characters in the set. So, more characters spread over fewer clix -- Thirty seven point five (37.5) percent fewer clix.
This left us wondering what the rarity level distribution would be in the set, so that we could figure out how many boosters one is expected to buy in order to either complete a set or have enough of the rarest level (super-rare) to be able to do 1:1 trades for the ones one's missing. As noted above, that used to mean 2 times the set size.
In the new scheme, well, here's how Wizkids laid it out:
Figures in each booster will be drawn from among the 60 figures in the set, which is broken into four levels of rarity (indicated by the color of the tab behind the set symbol on the figure's base):And work you shall!
* 16 Common figures (white rarity tabs)
* 16 Uncommon figures (green rarity tabs)
* 16 Rare figures (silver rarity tabs)
* 12 Super-Rare figures (gold rarity tabs)
Five figures from the set will be packed into each booster. A booster will contain the following number of figures from each level of rarity:
* 1-3 Commons
* 1-2 Uncommons
* 1 Rare
1 in 3 boosters will contain a Super-Rare figure, replacing one of the Common figures in the booster. Though it's possible to get 3 Common figures in a booster, a lucky pull will net you 1 Super-Rare figure, 1 Rare figure, 2 Uncommon figures, and only 1 Common! With the new colored rarity tabs, it will be simple to see what you've pulled out of a booster, and much easier to make equitable trades with your friends as you work to collect the entire set!
Under this scheme, there will be 12 super-rare pieces, and as noted they will occur at a rate of 1 per 3 boosters. This means that in a case of 20 boosters one will find roughly 6.666666 super-rares, so over two cases it'll be roughly 13. Or, coming at it from the other end, if one buys 36 boosters (four boosters shy of two cases) one should have 12 super-rares, almost certainly some of them duplicates, but the idea is that one will be able to find someone with the super-rare you want who's looking for one of your extras. Sticking strictly to this 36 booster number and hoping for the best, that means one is expected to buy 180 clix in pursuit of a 60 clix set.
So, the 2:1 buy ratio will now be 3:1... which is at least better than the 4:1 or worse some had feared. Still, it does mean buying almost as many clix as before in pursuit of a significantly smaller set.
This is made a little worse by Wizkids' exclusive distribution deal which has all but destroyed the wholesale business in Heroclix by funneling all sales through Diamond/Alliance. Those of us looking to buy in bulk won't be able to find the discounts they were able to previously. Some myopic - or perhaps simply petulant - people whose circumstances didn't permit them to consider case-level buys have celebrated this as a victory over the Haves. All it actually means is that initially everyone's being screwed more equally. Hurrah.
Beyond that, what this will mean for the secondary market remains hazy. It seems likely that many of those who routinely bought deep in order to collect their own set and sell off the extras, including complete sets, to recoup their expenditures and even make some money will not be as active simply because their unit cost will have gone up; bulk will cost more than it previously did.
This could be good for the person-to-person trading since individual buyers will be pulling many extras; however, most of those extras will be in the common and uncommon range; while on the face of it that was true before, it could be a little worse given the new ratios, and when it comes to the highest rarity pieces they could really be left out in the cold with nothing comparable to trade for the pieces they want. Those who decide they want to directly buy the pieces they really want on the secondary market may find that market to be smaller and more expensive.
Me? I'm still going over the numbers and seeing what will fit me best.
.png)
Comments
Although, if things don't look up soon, I'll be selling old clicks off rather than buying new ones.